Yönetim ve Ekonomi (Jan 2009)
Türkiye’nin Marshall-Lerner Koşuluna İlişkin Parçalı Eşbütünleşme Analizi(The Analysis of Fractional Co-Integration Related to Marshall-Lerner Condition of Turkey)
Abstract
Main reason of devaluation practises is to provide foreign trade balance by increasing official exchange rates.. As a result of devaluation when the import becomes expensive and the export cheap due to the fluctuating exchange rates, foreign trade balance is aimed with more exchange in and less exchange out for a country which has a trade deficit.But to fulfill this in the first place the total of foreign demand elasticity of export goods with domestic elasticity of import goods must be more than 1 which is known to be Marshall condition. The success of devaluation depends on altitude of supply elasticity of export goods.In terms of the success of devaluation another important topic is the absolute necessity of prevention of cost inflation which will probably become a reality in the increasing price of imported raw material,intermediate and capital goods after dealuation.In this study, pieced co-integration analyse tested between 1980-2008 period concerning whether Marshall-Lerner condition secured for Turkey. Marshall-Lerner condition doesn’t work properly for Turkey in the long term.
