Modelling and discussion on emission reduction transformation path of China's electric power industry under 'double carbon' goal

Abstract

China has promised to peak carbon emission before 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 (i.e., “double carbon” goal). Under this background, the emission reduction transformation path of China's electric power industry is studied in this paper. First, several boundary conditions (i.e., assumptions) of electric power structure transformation (i.e., the costs of power generations, the costs of energy storage systems, the developments of carbon sinks, the emission factors, and the quotas of carbon sinks) are given considering the whole society electricity consumption in the future. Second, a transformation path optimization model is established aim to minimize the total cost in the electric power industry. Then, according to the optimization results, the transformation predictions for the power industry under the ''30·60 scenario'' (i.e., the scenario that can achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality before 2030 and 2060) are analyzed in detail, and are compared with the ones of ''2 °C scenario'' and ''1.5 °C scenario'' defined by IPCC. Furthermore, the influence of different carbon prices on the transformation path is also analyzed. It can be concluded from the simulation results that the ''30·60 scenario'' is a scenario between ''2 °C scenario'' and ''1.5 °C scenario'', and carbon emission can be reduced rapidly under the guidance of high carbon prices.

Keywords

• Carbon dioxide emission
• Carbon neutrality
• Electric power structure
• Transformation path
• Scenario
• China