Scenario prediction of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Lingang New Area based on LEAP model

Abstract

Based on the statistical data of Lingang New Area in 2021, the LEAP-Lingang model was constructed, and the energy consumption and carbon emissions of Lingang New Area from 2022 to 2035 were predicted and studied by setting three scenarios: benchmark, policy and low carbon. The results show that under the policy scenario, the new area can maintain low energy consumption and carbon emission development, but fails to peak carbon emissions before 2035, and can basically peak carbon emissions around 2030 under low-carbon conditions. On the basis of existing policies, the new area can further promote clean energy development, accelerate regional industry and energy efficiency upgrading, and actively promote green power and green certificate trading to accelerate the process of carbon peaking.