Scenario based Imaging for improving Tehran`s crisis management system in the Horizon of 1410

Abstract

Achieving a "safe and sustainable city against a variety of injuries, hazards and accidents" is considered as one of the goals of the vision document of Tehran; along with the comprehensive plan The city of Tehran "considered the improvement of the crisis management system and improving the non-operating city's quality of defense" as one of the main strategies for the development of Tehran. Many scholars, drawing and challenging future city images, in order to overcome the ongoing changes and prepare themselves to confront the inherent complexities of the future, are considered as one of the most vital needs of urban communities. They believe that the survival and survival of cities without the attractive, strong and persistent images is not possible. Therefore, in this research, it is attempted to examine the images of the future of Tehran in the archetypal form of "growth, collapse, disciplined society and transformed society" using the " Dators Four Generic Alternative Futures " method. Until the identification of the most important challenges and opportunities of alternative futures, the basis for decision making and drawing of the desirable future of Tehran and provide expert-oriented proposals to enhance the city's performance and capacity in the field of crisis management and inactive defense is provided.

Keywords

• alternative futures of tehran
• crisis management
• non-operating defense
• scenario pack