Volatility and Return Connectedness Between the Oil Market and Eurozone Sectors During the Financial Crisis: A TVP-VAR Frequency Connectedness Approach

Abstract

This paper analyzes the returns and volatility connectedness between oil prices and Eurozone sector returns during the global financial crisis. We employ the TVP-VAR frequency connectedness approach with daily data of Brent prices and 18 Eurozone supersector indices from 15 November 2014 to 24 November 2023. Our results show a high average connectedness of the returns and volatilities. Industrial Goods are the largest transmitter contrariwise Media supersector is the largest receiver of shocks on returns. The same finding is for volatility, the result shows that Industrial Goods and Services transmit the highest risk in contrast, the Media has the highest receiver volatility indices. The time-varying connectedness (TCI) of returns and volatilities in both show a drastic increase in March 2020. This increase is a result of COVID-19. Whereas, there has been no rise in connectivity following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Our result highlighted that Brent was a net receiver of volatility shocks during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Keywords

• oil market
• eurozone super sectors
• tvp-var frequency connectedness
• volatility transmission
• volatility spillovers.