Business activity in the Context of Western Sanctions and Turbulence in Russia’s Strategic Development

Abstract

The article examines the trends in the development of the Russian economy in the period 2020 — April 2024. For this purpose, the Business Activity Index of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IE RAS Index) is used, the construction of which is based on monthly statistical data on basic areas of the economy. The results obtained are compared with the Index of output of goods and services by basic types of economic activity of Rosstat (Rosstat Index). Authors analyze the impact of business activity on economic growth in 2020–2021 during the coronavirus pandemic, aswell as in 2022–2024 during the special military operation in Donbas and Ukraine (SVO). It is noted that the structural restructuring that began in Russia under these conditions has become the main factor in accelerating strategic development. Business activity also had a strong impact on this process. As a result, the authors conclude that the IE RAS Index provides a more accurate estimate of gross domestic product than the Rosstat Index. This is an additional justification for its advantages, which should ensure its wider application both in the analysis of trends in the economic development of the state, and in the forecasting and analytical work of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia and Rosstat.

Keywords

• economy
• business activity
• gdp
• investment activity
• turbulence
• sovereignty power
• svo