Reassessment of growth-climate relations indicates the potential for decline across Eurasian boreal larch forests

Abstract

Abstract Larch, a widely distributed tree in boreal Eurasia, is experiencing rapid warming across much of its distribution. A comprehensive assessment of growth on warming is needed to comprehend the potential impact of climate change. Most studies, relying on rigid calendar-based temperature series, have detected monotonic responses at the margins of boreal Eurasia, but not across the region. Here, we developed a method for constructing temporally flexible and physiologically relevant temperature series to reassess growth-temperature relations of larch across boreal Eurasia. Our method appears more effective in assessing the impact of warming on growth than previous methods. Our approach indicates widespread and spatially heterogeneous growth-temperature responses that are driven by local climate. Models quantifying these results project that the negative responses of growth to temperature will spread northward and upward throughout this century. If true, the risks of warming to boreal Eurasia could be more widespread than conveyed from previous works.