Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics (May 2023)

Optimal vaccination control for COVID-19 in a metapopulation model: a case of the Philippines

  • Randy L. Caga-anan,
  • Randy L. Caga-anan,
  • Jead M. Macalisang,
  • Jead M. Macalisang,
  • John Lemuel M. Dalisay,
  • Michelle N. Raza,
  • Joey Genevieve T. Martinez,
  • Joey Genevieve T. Martinez,
  • Jayrold P. Arcede

DOI
https://doi.org/10.3389/fams.2023.1154634
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 9

Abstract

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We investigate a contextual problem of how to distribute a limited supply of vaccines over a period of time in a country where different regions have its own vaccination capacities. Considering that daily vaccination will affect future disease progression, we aim to find a distribution strategy over time that can minimize the total infection and implementation costs. Lagrangian and Eulerian migrations connect our multi-patch COVID-19 model, and vaccination is added as a control measure. An optimal control problem with an isoperimetric constraint is formulated and solved using the Adapted Forward–Backward Sweep Method. In distributing 5 million vaccines in 50 days, simulations showed that the optimal control strategy could lead to a difference of reducing two hundred thousand infections in just one region.

Keywords