Ziyuan Kexue (Nov 2023)
The effect of economic structural transformation on carbon emission reduction
Abstract
[Objective] In the context of the marginal reduction effect of technological innovation, it is of great significance to investigate the carbon reduction potential of economic structural transformation to achieve the “dual carbon” goal. [Methods] Based on the input-output theory and structural decomposition analysis, this study constructed an explanatory framework to describe the carbon emission reduction driven by economic transformation. The multi-regional input-output table and corresponding carbon emission data of China from 2007 to 2017 were used for the analyses from the industrial and spatial dimensions respectively. The contribution of the dynamic adjustments of energy structure, input structure, intermediate production structure, consumption structure, investment structure, and export structure to carbon emission reduction was systematically analyzed, and discussed at the national, regional, and provincial levels respectively. [Results] (1) During the study period, the carbon emission reduction caused by structural changes was about 1.727 billion tons, and China’s economy realized the power transformation from technology-driven carbon reduction to structural change-driven emission reduction; (2) The optimization of intermediate production structure was the pillar of structural change-driven emission reduction, and the effect of industrial structure optimization among economic sectors is much greater than that of spatial structure optimization caused by inter-regional resource factor reallocation; (3) The carbon emission reduction effect of industrial structure optimization within each region was more significant, and the inland regions with inherent geographical disadvantages failed to realize the spatial allocation optimization under regional synergy. The carbon emission reduction effect of the eastern region, whether it is fully developed within the region or due to coordinated development between regions, took lead in the country. (4) Regional development level and economic structural change carbon emission reduction effect mainly showed the characteristics of “tail effect” and “scale effect”, in which the investment structure emission reduction had scale effect, but the factor input still faced structural imbalance, resulting in the increase of carbon emissions caused by the change of factor input structure in provinces with large populations and economic scale. [Conclusion] Economic structure transformation is an important path to achieving carbon emission reduction. Through the “two-wheel driving” effect of production side and demand side structure optimization on carbon emission reduction, China’s low-carbon transformation development will be continuously promoted.
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