Vector auto-regressive model (VAR) results’ versus auto-regressive distributive lags model (ARDL) results’

Abstract

The paper aims to test the possibility of getting the same results when applying two different econometric models in testing the relation between the development of financial sector and the economic growth in Egypt. The paper examines the relation between the improvement of financial segment and the economic growth in Egypt to check the relation’s existence and to determine its direction using the vector autoregressive model VAR. The paper then compares the results obtained with the results of other published paper using auto-regressive distributed lags model ARDL to test the same. relation in Egypt. The main finding of this study is that using two different econometric models to test the existence of the relation between the improvement of the financial segment and the economic growth in Egypt, has contributed to the same result in the long-run; which is the existence of long run relationship between the financial segment improvement and the development of the economic growth indicating that the development of the financial sector leads to the development of economic growth.

Keywords

• financial development؛ economic growth
• ardl
• vector error correction model
• co-integration