Impact of short- and long-term factors on the growth of gross agricultural products in Azerbaijan: ARDL analysis

Abstract

Purpose. The main purpose of this research is to assess the factors affecting the gross agricultural products in Azerbaijan in the short and long term. Methodology / approach. This study uses an Autoregressive Distributional Lag (ARDL) model to analyse the relationship between gross agricultural output and total government expenditure on agriculture, the volume of credit used in agriculture, direct investment in fixed assets in agriculture, and the country’s net agricultural exports. In our study, unlike most existing research, the variables are integrated in the second order, which increases the importance of this study. Results. The results of the study indicate that, despite the “crowding in” effect created by the state budget expenditures as the main factor in the short term, the effect on the growth of gross agricultural products in the long term is not so important. Credit resources and net exports have a negative effect in this relationship. In the long term, investment in fixed capital is a crucial factor in the growth of production. In general, the positive balance of net exports is a “mirror” reflection of investments, especially innovation-oriented investments. Considering that the predominance of imports in the total demand for agricultural products significantly reduces the multiplier effect that can occur in the field in general, it minimises the multiplier effect of the total expenditure. From this point of view, foreign investments can play an important role in creating a positive balance in the trade balance of agriculture. Originality / scientific novelty. The scientific value of the research is the selection of main factors as direct contributions to the growth of the gross agricultural products and their effects. Through the ARDL program, we determined what factors are short-term and which are long-term, and we analysed the causes and consequences of these dependencies and put forward relevant proposals. Practical value / implications. The practical value of the research lies in the given proposals that can directly affect the net export of agricultural products and create positive changes in its balance. Because, massive investments, especially foreign investments, can modernise the rural economy in a short period of time and, accordingly, not only increase the competitiveness of its products in foreign markets, but also raise the level of self-sufficiency.

Keywords

• gross agricultural product
• state budget expenditures
• credit
• net export
• investment
• ardl.