Carbon Emission Scenario Prediction and Peak Path Selection in China

Abstract

Due to the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, the global climate is warming. As the world’s biggest emitter of carbon emissions, China faces a more severe challenge in reducing carbon emissions than developed countries. A reasonable prediction of the carbon peak in China will help the government to formulate effective emission reduction paths. This paper analyzes the changes in carbon emissions in China from 2004 to 2020, uses the STIRPAT model and scenario analysis method to predict carbon emissions from 2021 to 2030, and then calculates the carbon efficiency during carbon peaking to select the most effective carbon peak path for China. The results show that China’s carbon emissions increased year by year from 2004 to 2020. Under the baseline scenario, China is unlikely to reach its carbon peak before 2030. Under the regulatory scenarios, China can reach its carbon peak before 2030. The peak values from high to low are seen with the rapid development-weak carbon control scenario, rapid development-intensified carbon control scenario, slow development-weak carbon control scenario and slow development-intensified carbon control scenario, respectively. Correspondingly, China will peak its carbon emissions in 2029, 2028, 2028 and 2028, respectively, according to these scenarios. The carbon efficiency under the rapid development-weak carbon control scenario is the highest, which means that accelerating the growth rate of population, GDP and urbanization while moderately carrying out the transformation of industrial structure and energy structure is an effective way to achieve the goal of “carbon peak by 2030”.

Keywords

• carbon emission
• STIRPAT model
• scenario analysis
• carbon efficiency
• carbon peak path