Analysis of the Impact Consequent to the Emergence of Imported Ebola Virus Disease Cases in the Russian Federation

Abstract

Objective of the study was to forecast the scale of the outbreak that would emerge after arrival of persons infected with Ebola virus into the Russian Federation. Initial data for the prediction were obtained from retrospective analysis of hemorrhagic Ebola fever outbreaks registered within the period of 1976-2014, and the spread of the virus in the Republic of Guinea and Mali in 2014. Delays in the identification of a patient and the lack of compliance with control measures may result in secondary disease in 3-5 persons from among the members of the family and the medical staff. Timely diagnostics and strict observance of safety regulations for treatment of patients with fever of unknown etiology will minimize the number of secondary diseases to a single case or none at all.

Keywords

• лихорадка эбола
• эпидемиологическое прогнозирование
• вероятность инфицирования
• ebola fever
• epidemiological forecasting
• chance of infection