The Impact of a Regional Nuclear Conflict between India and Pakistan: Two Views

Abstract

The severity of climatic effects of a regional nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, involving the use of a hundred Hiroshima-scale nuclear weapons, is contested between two groups; Mills et al. from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), University of Colorado, and Rutgers University conclude that a global Nuclear Winter would occur; Reisner et al. from Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) conclude that No Nuclear Winter would occur. This paper discusses the different assumptions that lead to the two different conclusions. Specifically, it highlights the use of different fuel loading and different input methods for the amount and initial location of black carbon (BC) into the climate models, and discusses some underlying reasons for these different choices, including the question of what kind of fire will occur in the aftermath of a nuclear weapon being dropped on a densely populated city. The paper also briefly discusses some physical phenomena that have not been considered by either group and lays out some questions for research before any definitive conclusion about the climatic effects of a limited nuclear war can be reached. However, until these problems are resolved, from a disarmament point of view, the precautionary principle is, in situations of such high stakes involving millions of deaths, there is an obligation to assume a worst-case scenario. Such a scenario would include the possibility that a limited nuclear conflict could cause a Nuclear Winter by leading to a broader nuclear conflict.

Keywords

• nuclear winter
• model uncertainty
• soot-generation
• firestorm