Study of the human infectious safety model under the influence of SARS-CoV-2 on the example of the Perm Krai of the Russian Federation

Abstract

In the new millennium, humanity is faced with infectious diseases that no one previously knew about. In the end of 2019, an outbreak of a new coronavirus infection occurred in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) with an epicenter in the city of Wuhan (Hubei Province). On February 11, 2020, the International Committee on the Taxonomy of Viruses assigned an official name to the infectious agent - SARS-CoV-2. According to the results of serological and phylogenetic analysis, coronaviruses are divided into four genera: Alphacoronavirus, Betacoronavirus, Gammacoronavirus and Deltacoronavirus. Currently, four seasonal coronaviruses (HCoV-229E, - OC43, -NL63 and -HKU1) are circulating among the world’s population, which are present year-round in the structure of ARI, and, as a rule, cause damage to the upper respiratory tract of mild and moderate severity, as well as two highly pathogenic coronaviruses-Middle East respiratory syndrome virus (MERS) and new coronavirus infection COVID-19. To develop a model of human resistance to the disease caused by the coronavirus family, the elements, links and ways of protecting the Human-Virus-Environment system were identified. The destructive functions of sixteen proteins of the SARS-CoV-2 strain are considered. Deterministic and statistical models of cells infection risk development have been developed. A parameterized system of human protection against coronavirus infection is proposed.