ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC RISKS AND THREATS ON THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OF THE REGIONS OF THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC

Abstract

The article analyzes the main macroeconomic risks and threats affecting the financial situation of the regions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (hereinafter — the Russian Arctic) due to changes in the geopolitical situation as a result of the introduction of sanctions against the Russian Federation due to its special military operation on the territory of Ukraine. According to some Russian and foreign experts, increased sanctions pressure from a number of countries may lead not only to a recession in the economy, but also provoke a new global economic crisis, the consequences of which will be more tangible than the negative effect of the crisis of 2008–2009. Therefore, protection from internal and external threats, ensuring the stability of the financial system, creating favorable conditions for maintaining the stability of the regional economy are extremely important and necessary in the current situation. The sanctions have significantly affected the change in the existing order, so the regions of the Russian Arctic have to stabilize the financial situation and prevent some industries from recession as soon as possible. The scientific novelty of the study lies in clarifying and systematizing the conditions for the functioning of the financial system of the regions of the Russian Arctic in the context of macroeconomic risks and threats caused by the changed geopolitical situation after February 24, 2022 and the introduction of large-scale sanctions to destroy the financial sector of the Russian economy. The risks associated not only with the specific features of the regions of the Russian Arctic, but also macroeconomic factors are analyzed. It has been established that the regions of the Russian Arctic where the degree of influence of restrictive sanctions measures is determined by openness and integration into international trade due to significant mutual effects, are most at risk. The main risks can also include a decline in industrial production, an increase in unemployment, both hidden and official. Tax revenues of consolidated regional budgets may significantly decrease. It is concluded that a change in the macroeconomic situation can significantly affect the position of the regions of the Russian Arctic in terms of financial potential.

Keywords

• arctic zone of the russian federation
• macroeconomic risks and threats
• financial potential
• regional development
• state program “socio-economic development of the arctic zone of the russian federation”