HARMONIZATION OF CALCULATIONS ON SPOT DYNAMIC INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL AND MODEL-SOFTWARE COMPLEX WITH SPATIAL MODELS OF THE ECONOMY

Abstract

The Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering (IEIE) of SB RAS and the Novosibirsk State University have accumulated many years of experience in the development and use of different types of point and spatial dynamic input-output models (DIOM) in the analysis and forecasting of the economy of Russia and its regions. In particular, the CAII system has been developed (Complex Analysis of Interindustrial Information), including DIOM taking into account the investment lag (DIOM-CAII), and model-software complex with spatial input-output models (further - MSC), including input-output inter-regional optimization model (IOIRM). Each type of the models has its advantages and limitations for use in the analysis and forecasting. The paper describes the differences and common features of data support of DIOM-CAII and MSC and summarizes the features of long-term forecasting of the Russian economy with the use of DIOM-CAII and IOIRM at the macroeconomic level. Authors provide a brief comparative analysis of the results of forecast calculations for the development of the Russian economy for the period 2014-2031 with allocation of the methodical features of the MSC and DIOM-CAII.

Keywords

• межотраслевой анализ
• динамические межотраслевые модели
• пространственный анализ экономики
• экономика России
• input-output analyses
• dynamic input-output models
• spatial analyses of the economy
• Russian economy