Global sensitivity analysis for Building-Stock Energy Models: Application of three global approaches

Abstract

Buildings-Stock Energy Models (BSEMs) recently gained vast momentum in battling the climate emergency. They allow for quick evaluation of competing policy solutions for determining effective energy reduction recommendations in the building sector. Yet, the output of these models hold a significant range of variation since it is impossible to precisely quantify all inputs and complex energy flows. Without understanding these limits of inference resulting policy advice is inherently defective. Uncertainty Analysis (UA) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) enable to quantify these limits of inference and calculate each factor’s share in the output’s variation. This study presents a systematic comparison of three different global SA methods to an internally developed bottom-up BSEM (based on the regulatory model in ISO13790). Accuracy, calculation burden and complexity of application of each method is evaluated to provide guidance which can inform the application of these methods to other BSEMs.

Keywords

• iea ebc annex 70
• building-stock energy model
• uncertainty analysis
• sobol’ sensitivity analysis
• morris method
• delta moment-independent measure