Does the Chinese coastal ports disruption affect the reliability of the maritime network? Evidence from port importance and typhoon risk

Abstract

Traditional studies typically employed random and deliberate attack methods to explore port failure, overlooking real-world factors. In this research, we focus on exploring the reliability of the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) container shipping networks after the failure of Chinese coastal ports due to the impact of typhoons. This article analyzes AIS trajectory data and typhoon occurrence data through entropy weight method and grey correlation analysis, to construct an evaluation model for the failure of Chinese critical ports. Then, we will look at the effects of deliberately removing Chinese critical ports from the MSR container shipping system. The main conclusions drawn are as follows: (1) Except for some of the largest ports (i.e., Ningbo-Zhoushan, Shanghai, and Kaohsiung), the importance of Chinese coastal ports varies slightly in the MSR container maritime network, while it varies widely in their exposure and resistance to typhoons. (2) Ports of Ningbo Zhoushan, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Shekou, Kaohsiung, and Yantian rank high in the comprehensive evaluation results. They have a higher probability of failure when affected by typhoon risks. (3) After the failure of Chinese crucial ports, the reliability of the MSR container maritime network successively declined, recovered, and stabilized. This study can offer a valuable reference for relevant actors involved in safeguarding crucial ports, finding alternative ports, optimizing shipping routes, and improving the reliability of maritime networks under typhoons and other major natural disasters.

Keywords

• Reliability
• Container shipping
• Typhoon risk assessment
• Maritime silk road
• China
• Ports