Multi-step wind speed prediction based on LSSVM combined with ESMD and fractional-order beetle swarm optimization

Abstract

Accurate and stable wind speed prediction can alleviate the uncertain impacts of wind power generation caused by nonlinear characteristics of wind speed, and then improve the reliability of wind power. In this paper, a hybrid model for wind speed prediction based on mode decomposition, parameter optimization and basic prediction model is proposed. First, the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) is employed to adaptively decompose the denoised wind speed time series into sub-sequences with different frequencies. Second, a fractional-order beetle swarm optimization (FO-BSO) for parameter optimization of the Least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) is proposed. Through benchmark functions and non-parametric statistical test, the advantages of the FO-BSO in accuracy, stability and convergence speed are verified. Subsequently, the ESMD-FO-BSO-LSSVM prediction model is established, and three groups of wind speed datasets with different sampling locations and sampling frequencies are selected for simulation experiments. The results show that the coefficient of determination of 1-step prediction of the proposed model in three datasets are 0.9856, 0.9713, 0.9940, which has 2.43%, 3.38%, 3.08% average promotion than that of 7 comparative models. And the accuracy and stability of ESMD-FO-BSO-LSSVM model in multi-step wind speed prediction have also achieved better performance than 7 competitors.

Keywords

• Multi-step wind speed prediction
• Beetle swarm optimization algorithm
• Fractional calculus
• Extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition
• Least squares support vector machine