Авіаційно-космічна техніка та технологія (Apr 2018)
EVALUATION OF THE INVESTMENT FEASIBILITY OF THE PROJECT FOR CREATION OF ENERGY COMPLEX WITH PLASMA-CHEMICAL TREATMENT OF COAL IN CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTIES
Abstract
Successful implementation of international projects for the creation of energy complexes with plasma-chemical treatment of coal into synthesis gas and its using as fuel for gas turbine engines requires large capital investments. In this connection, the use of the Monte Carlo method during assessing the investment feasibility and efficiency of implementation of similar projects in conditions of uncertainties and risks presents applied and scientific interest. The Monte Carlo method makes it possible to use a representative sample of scenarios and not to search through all possible variants of the development of events in the future. The merits include the linear dependence of the number of simulations on the number of financial instruments and the ability to take into account both economic and technical indicators. It is determined that the strategic criteria for the success of the project can prevail in relation to economic and functional-technological, especially in the case of the development of a new environmentally friendly plasma-assisted technology. A theoretical model for estimating the economic efficiency of the project for creation of energy complex using inductive (radio frequency) plasma generators has been developed. Parameters characterizing the economic efficiency of proposed power plant with plasma-chemical gasification of coal are analyzed. The project efficiency depends significantly on the parameters characterizing the investment and discounting conditions. The estimation of economic efficiency of the investment project using plasma-chemical technology on a thermal power station with produced electric power of 3.9 MW is carried out. For the considered project conditions, the calculated average value of the profitability index for a power plant with plasma-chemical gasification of coal for 15 years is equaled 1.19 with a probability of 76%. The developed theoretical models can be used to solve problems of enhancement and optimization of management of international projects for the creation of plasma-chemical elements in conditions of uncertainties and risks
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