Uncertainty in Economic Policies and Stock Price Crash Risk Companies Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of uncertainty in economic policy on the stock price crash risk. In this applied descriptive-analytical ex post facto study, the statistical population included the companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Over a seven-year period, 148 companies are selected using the systematic sampling method (2015–2021). In this study, the negative skewness of return on equity (ROE) and down-to-up volatility were used to assess the stock price crash risk (dependent variable) and uncertainty in economic policy (independent variable). The data was then analyzed using the multivariate regression model. The results of the hypothesis testing indicated that volatility in the interest rate, dollar exchange rate, inflation, and economic growth had a positive significant effect on the stock price crash risk or the negative skewness of ROE and down-to-up volatility. Hence, given the effects of macroeconomic variables on the ROE, in order to achieve economic sustainability, the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran should pay close attention to the adoption of macroeconomic policies, prevent economic policymakers and planners from implementing hasty unscientific policies, and increase the share of tax revenues from income sources.

Keywords

• economic policy uncertainty
• stock price crash risk
• exchange rate
• economic growth