Emergent Properties of Land Systems: Nonlinear Dynamics of Scottish Farming Systems from 1867 to 2020

Abstract

Dynamics of arable and pastoral farming systems in Scotland over the period 1867–2020 are documented using time series analysis methods, including for nonlinear dynamical systems. Results show arable and pastoral farming, at a national scale, are dynamic over a range of timescales, with medium- and short-term dynamics associated with endogenous system forces and exogenous factors, respectively. Medium-term dynamics provide evidence of endogenous systems-level feedbacks between farming sectors responding to change in world and national cereal prices as an economic driver, and act to dampen impacts of exogenous shocks and events (weather, disease). Regime shifts are identified in national cereal prices. Results show change and dynamics as emergent properties of system interactions. Changes in dynamics and strength of endogenous dampening over the duration of the study are associated with dynamical changes from major governmental policy decisions that altered the boundary conditions for interdependencies of arable and pastoral farming.

Keywords

• land system dynamics
• emergent properties
• time series analysis
• nonlinear dynamics
• Recurrence Plots
• Scotland