More than one landslide per road kilometer – surveying and modeling mass movements along the Rishikesh–Joshimath (NH-7) highway, Uttarakhand, India

Abstract

The rapidly expanding Himalayan road network connects rural mountainous regions. However, the fragility of the landscape and poor road construction practices lead to frequent mass movements alongside roads. In this study, we investigate fully or partially road-blocking landslides along National Highway (NH-7) in Uttarakhand, India, between Rishikesh and Joshimath. Based on an inventory of >300 landslides along the ∼250 km long corridor following exceptionally high rainfall during September and October 2022, we identify the main controls on the spatial occurrence of mass-movement events. Our analysis and modeling approach conceptualizes landslides as a network-attached spatial point pattern. We evaluate different gridded rainfall products and infer the controls on landslide occurrence using Bayesian analysis of an inhomogeneous Poisson process model. Our results reveal that slope, rainfall amounts, lithology and road widening are the main controls on landslide occurrence. The individual effects of aggregated lithozones are consistent with previous assessments of landslide susceptibilities of rock types in the Himalayas. Our model spatially predicts landslide occurrences and can be adapted to other rainfall scenarios, thus having potential applications for efficiently allocating efforts for road maintenance. To this end, our results highlight the vulnerability of the Himalayan road network to landslides. Climate change and increasing exposure along this pilgrimage route will likely exacerbate landslide risk along the NH-7 in the future.