Land cover changes across Greenland dominated by a doubling of vegetation in three decades

Abstract

Abstract Land cover responses to climate change must be quantified for understanding Arctic climate, managing Arctic water resources, maintaining the health and livelihoods of Arctic societies and for sustainable economic development. This need is especially pressing in Greenland, where climate changes are amongst the most pronounced of anywhere in the Arctic. Ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet and from glaciers and ice caps has increased since the 1980s and consequently the proglacial parts of Greenland have expanded rapidly. Here we determine proglacial land cover changes at 30 m spatial resolution across Greenland during the last three decades. Besides the vastly decreased ice cover (− 28,707 km2 ± 9767 km2), we find a doubling in total areal coverage of vegetation (111% ± 13%), a quadrupling in wetlands coverage (380% ± 29%), increased meltwater (15% ± 15%), decreased bare bedrock (− 16% ± 4%) and increased coverage of fine unconsolidated sediment (4% ± 13%). We identify that land cover change is strongly associated with the difference in the number of positive degree days, especially above 6 °C between the 1980s and the present day. Contrastingly, absolute temperature increase has a negligible association with land cover change. We explain that these land cover changes represent local rapid and intense geomorphological activity that has profound consequences for land surface albedo, greenhouse gas emissions, landscape stability and sediment delivery, and biogeochemical processes.