Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM), Statistical, and Machine Learning Models in the Aube Department, France

Abstract

Landslides are among the most relevant and potentially damaging natural risks, causing material and human losses. The department of Aube in France is well known for several major landslide occurrences. This study focuses on the assessment of Landslide Susceptibility (LS) using the Frequency Ratio (FR) as a statistical method, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) method, and Random Forest (RF) and k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) as machine learning methods in the Aube department, northeast of France. Subsequently, the thematic layers of eight landslide causative factors, including distance to hydrography, density of quarries, elevation, slope, lithology, distance to roads, distance to faults, and rainfall, were generated in the geographic information system (GIS) environment. The thematic layers were integrated and processed to map landslide susceptibility in the study area. On the other hand, an inventory of landslides was carried out based on the database created by the French Geological Survey (BRGM), where 157 landslide occurrences were selected, and then RF and kNN models were trained to generate landslide maps (LSMs) of the study area. The generated maps were assessed by using the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC AUC). Subsequently, the accuracy assessment of the FR model revealed more accurate results (AUC = 66.0%) than AHP, outperforming the latter by 6%, while machine learning models results showed that RF gave better results than kNN (<7.3%) with AUC = 95%. Following the analysis of LS mapping results, lithology, distance to the hydrographic network, distance to roads, and elevation were the four main factors controlling landslide susceptibility in the study area. Future mitigation and protection activities within the Aube department can benefit from the present study mapping results, implicating an optimized land management for decision-makers.

Keywords

• landslide susceptibility
• analytic hierarchy process
• frequency ratio
• random forest
• k-nearest neighbor
• Aube department