Infraestructura portuaria y crecimiento económico regional en la Costa Oeste del Pacífico Sur: Un análisis de causalidad de Granger

Abstract

The objective of the article is to determine the causal relationship and measure the impact between investment in port infrastructure and regional economic growth for 10 macro-regions of Peru and Chile during the period 2004-2016. For this, a cointegration analysis is used for a data panel, as well as an error correction model and a Granger causality analysis. Empirical evidence shows that there is a bidirectional causality in the short term of investment in port infrastructure towards economic growth and a unidirectional relationship in the long term of investment in port infrastructure towards economic growth. Likewise, the impact found is that an increase of USD 1 million in investment in port infrastructure generates an increase of USD 56.11 in regional GDP per capita. On the other hand, it was found that there are asymmetric effects in the short term of greater investment in port infrastructure on GDP per capita. In this way, a smaller effect is evident in the macro-regions of Peru.

Keywords

• causalidad de granger
• infraestructura portuaria
• crecimiento económico regional
• panel data