Risk factors and prognostic impact of new decompensated events in hospitalized patients with decompensated cirrhosis

Abstract

Abstract Background Decompensated cirrhosis (DC) is prone to recurrent episodes of decompensation following the initial event. This study aimed to identify the risk factors for subsequent decompensation and assess their impact on the outcomes of patients hospitalized for DC. Methods Patients with DC were divided into two groups based on the occurrence of new decompensated events during hospitalization. Logistic regression analysis was employed to identify risk factors for new decompensation. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the relationship between new decompensation and short-term mortality risk in these patients. Results The study cohort consisted of 339 patients with DC, with a median age of 57 years. During hospitalization, 83 patients (24.5%) experienced new decompensated events, with bacterial infections (BIs) being the most common (n = 46, 13.6%). Multivariate analysis revealed that the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score at admission (OR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02–1.11, P = 0.005) was the sole risk factor for new decompensation during hospitalization. Patients who experienced new decompensation had significantly higher 28-day (28.9% vs. 7.0%, P < 0.001) and 90-day (33.7% vs. 15.2%, P < 0.001) transplant-free mortality compared to those who did not. After adjusting for white cell count, C-reactive protein, and MELD score, new decompensation during hospitalization was identified as an independent risk factor for 28-day and 90-day mortality (HR = 2.63, 95% CI: 1.42–4.87, P = 0.002 and HR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.04–2.88, P = 0.033, respectively). Conclusions Patients with high MELD scores are susceptible to new decompensation during hospitalization, and the occurrence of new decompensation adversely affects short-term mortality in patients with DC.

Keywords

• Decompensated cirrhosis
• New decompensated events
• MELD score
• Prognosis
• First decompensation