Evaluating the forecasting performance of ensemble sub-epidemic frameworks and other time series models for the 2022–2023 mpox epidemic

Abstract

During the 2022–2023 unprecedented mpox epidemic, near real-time short-term forecasts of the epidemic’s trajectory were essential in intervention implementation and guiding policy. However, as case levels have significantly decreased, evaluating model performance is vital to advancing the field of epidemic forecasting. Using laboratory-confirmed mpox case data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Our World in Data teams, we generated retrospective sequential weekly forecasts for Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States and at the global scale using an auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, generalized additive model, simple linear regression, Facebook’s Prophet model, as well as the sub-epidemic wave and n-sub-epidemic modelling frameworks. We assessed forecast performance using average mean squared error, mean absolute error, weighted interval scores, 95% prediction interval coverage, skill scores and Winkler scores. Overall, the n-sub-epidemic modelling framework outcompeted other models across most locations and forecasting horizons, with the unweighted ensemble model performing best most frequently. The n-sub-epidemic and spatial-wave frameworks considerably improved in average forecasting performance relative to the ARIMA model (greater than 10%) for all performance metrics. Findings further support sub-epidemic frameworks for short-term forecasting epidemics of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases.

Keywords

• mpox
• ensemble
• n-sub-epidemic framework
• sub-epidemic wave framework
• statistical models
• model benchmarking