Royal Society Open Science (Feb 2024)
Bellwethers of change: population modelling of North Pacific humpback whales from 2002 through 2021 reveals shift from recovery to climate response
- Ted Cheeseman,
- Jay Barlow,
- Jo Marie Acebes,
- Katherina Audley,
- Lars Bejder,
- Caitlin Birdsall,
- Olga Solis Bracamontes,
- Amanda L. Bradford,
- Josie Byington,
- John Calambokidis,
- Rachel Cartwright,
- Jen Cedarleaf,
- Andrea Jacqueline García Chavez,
- Jens Currie,
- Rouenne Camille De Castro,
- Joëlle De Weerdt,
- Nicole Doe,
- Thomas Doniol-Valcroze,
- Karina Dracott,
- Olga Filatova,
- Rachel Finn,
- Kiirsten R. Flynn,
- John Ford,
- Astrid Frisch-Jordán,
- Chris Gabriele,
- Beth Goodwin,
- Craig Hayslip,
- Jackie Hildering,
- Marie C. Hill,
- Jeff K. Jacobsen,
- M. Esther Jiménez-López,
- Meagan Jones,
- Nozomi Kobayashi,
- Marc Lammers,
- Edward Lyman,
- Mark Malleson,
- Evgeny Mamaev,
- Pamela Martínez Loustalot,
- Annie Masterman,
- Craig O. Matkin,
- Christie McMillan,
- Jeff Moore,
- John Moran,
- Janet L. Neilson,
- Hayley Newell,
- Haruna Okabe,
- Marilia Olio,
- Christian D. Ortega-Ortiz,
- Adam A. Pack,
- Daniel M. Palacios,
- Heidi Pearson,
- Ester Quintana-Rizzo,
- Raul Ramírez Barragán,
- Nicola Ransome,
- Hiram Rosales-Nanduca,
- Fred Sharpe,
- Tasli Shaw,
- Ken Southerland,
- Stephanie Stack,
- Iain Staniland,
- Janice Straley,
- Andrew Szabo,
- Suzie Teerlink,
- Olga Titova,
- Jorge Urban-Ramirez,
- Martin van Aswegen,
- Marcel Vinicius,
- Olga von Ziegesar,
- Briana Witteveen,
- Janie Wray,
- Kymberly Yano,
- Igor Yegin,
- Denny Zwiefelhofer,
- Phil Clapham
Affiliations
- Ted Cheeseman
- Marine Ecology Research Centre, Southern Cross University, Lismore, New South Wales, Australia
- Jay Barlow
- Marine Mammal Institute, Oregon State University, Newport, OR, USA
- Jo Marie Acebes
- BALYENA.ORG, Brgy. Pangdan, Jagna, Bohol, The Philippines
- Katherina Audley
- Whales of Guerrero, Portland, OR, USA
- Lars Bejder
- Marine Mammal Research Program, Hawai'i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Kaneohe, HI, USA
- Caitlin Birdsall
- Marine Education and Research Society, Port McNeill, British Columbia, Canada
- Olga Solis Bracamontes
- University of Guadalajara, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico
- Amanda L. Bradford
- NOAA Fisheries Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, Honolulu, HI, USA
- Josie Byington
- Pacific Wildlife Foundation Canada, Port Moody, British Columbia, Canada
- John Calambokidis
- Cascadia Research Collective, Olympia, WA, USA
- Rachel Cartwright
- The Keiki Kohola Project, Delray Beach, FL, USA
- Jen Cedarleaf
- University of Alaska Southeast, Sitka Campus, Sitka, AK, USA
- Andrea Jacqueline García Chavez
- Whales of Guerrero, Portland, OR, USA
- Jens Currie
- Pacific Whale Foundation, Wailuku, HI, USA
- Rouenne Camille De Castro
- BALYENA.ORG, Brgy. Pangdan, Jagna, Bohol, The Philippines
- Joëlle De Weerdt
- Association ELI-S, Gujan-Mestras, France
- Nicole Doe
- Marine Education and Research Society, Port McNeill, British Columbia, Canada
- Thomas Doniol-Valcroze
- Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
- Karina Dracott
- Ocean Wise, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Olga Filatova
- Department of Biology, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
- Rachel Finn
- Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary, Kīhei, HI, USA
- Kiirsten R. Flynn
- Cascadia Research Collective, Olympia, WA, USA
- John Ford
- Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
- Astrid Frisch-Jordán
- Ecología y Conservación de Ballenas, AC, Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico
- Chris Gabriele
- Hawai'i Marine Mammal Consortium, Waimea, HI, USA
- Beth Goodwin
- Eye of the Whale Marine Mammal Research, Kamuela, HI, USA
- Craig Hayslip
- Marine Mammal Institute, Oregon State University, Newport, OR, USA
- Jackie Hildering
- Marine Education and Research Society, Port McNeill, British Columbia, Canada
- Marie C. Hill
- NOAA Fisheries Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, Honolulu, HI, USA
- Jeff K. Jacobsen
- VE Enterprises, McKinleyville, CA, USA
- M. Esther Jiménez-López
- Departamento Académico de Ingeniería en Pesquerías, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur, La Paz, BCS, Mexico
- Meagan Jones
- Whale Trust, Puunene, HI, USA
- Nozomi Kobayashi
- Okinawa Churashima Foundation, Okinawa, Japan
- Marc Lammers
- Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary, Kīhei, HI, USA
- Edward Lyman
- Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary, Kīhei, HI, USA
- Mark Malleson
- Center for Whale Research, Friday Harbour, WA, USA
- Evgeny Mamaev
- FGBU Gosudarstvennyj zapovednik Komandorskij, Commander Islands, Kamchatka Krai, Russia
- Pamela Martínez Loustalot
- Universidad Autonoma de Baja California Sur, La Paz, BCS, Mexico
- Annie Masterman
- National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Auke Bay Laboratories, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Juneau, AK, USA
- Craig O. Matkin
- North Gulf Oceanic Society, Homer, AK, USA
- Christie McMillan
- Marine Education and Research Society, Port McNeill, British Columbia, Canada
- Jeff Moore
- NOAA Fisheries Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, CA, USA
- John Moran
- National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Auke Bay Laboratories, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Juneau, AK, USA
- Janet L. Neilson
- Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Gustavus, AK, USA
- Hayley Newell
- Happywhale, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
- Haruna Okabe
- Okinawa Churashima Foundation, Okinawa, Japan
- Marilia Olio
- Happywhale, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
- Christian D. Ortega-Ortiz
- Faculty of Marine Sciences, Universidad de Colima, Colima, Mexico
- Adam A. Pack
- Department of Psychology, University of Hawai'i at Hilo, Hilo, HI, USA
- Daniel M. Palacios
- Marine Mammal Institute, Oregon State University, Newport, OR, USA
- Heidi Pearson
- University of Alaska Southeast, Juneau, AK, USA
- Ester Quintana-Rizzo
- Emmanuel College, Boston, MA, USA
- Raul Ramírez Barragán
- Whales of Guerrero, Portland, OR, USA
- Nicola Ransome
- College of Sustainable Aquatic Ecosystems, Harry Butler Institute, Murdoch University, Western Australia, Australia
- Hiram Rosales-Nanduca
- Departamento Académico de Ingeniería en Pesquerías, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur, La Paz, BCS, Mexico
- Fred Sharpe
- McCowan Lab, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, USA
- Tasli Shaw
- Humpback Whales of the Salish Sea, Duncan, British Columbia, Canada
- Ken Southerland
- Happywhale, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
- Stephanie Stack
- Pacific Whale Foundation, Wailuku, HI, USA
- Iain Staniland
- International Whaling Commission, Impington, UK
- Janice Straley
- University of Alaska Southeast, Juneau, AK, USA
- Andrew Szabo
- Alaska Whale Foundation, Petersburg, AK, USA
- Suzie Teerlink
- Juneau Flukes, Juneau, AK, USA
- Olga Titova
- A. N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
- Jorge Urban-Ramirez
- Universidad Autonoma de Baja California Sur, La Paz, BCS, Mexico
- Martin van Aswegen
- Marine Mammal Research Program, Hawai'i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Kaneohe, HI, USA
- Marcel Vinicius
- Happywhale, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
- Olga von Ziegesar
- Winged Whale Research, Homer, AK, USA
- Briana Witteveen
- University of Alaska Fairbanks College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, Fairbanks, AK, USA
- Janie Wray
- North Coast Cetacean Society, Alert Bay, British Columbia, Canada
- Kymberly Yano
- NOAA Fisheries Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, Honolulu, HI, USA
- Igor Yegin
- Happywhale, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
- Denny Zwiefelhofer
- Happywhale, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
- Phil Clapham
- Seastar Scientific, Vashon, WA, USA
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.231462
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 11,
no. 2
Abstract
For the 40 years after the end of commercial whaling in 1976, humpback whale populations in the North Pacific Ocean exhibited a prolonged period of recovery. Using mark–recapture methods on the largest individual photo-identification dataset ever assembled for a cetacean, we estimated annual ocean-basin-wide abundance for the species from 2002 through 2021. Trends in annual estimates describe strong post-whaling era population recovery from 16 875 (± 5955) in 2002 to a peak abundance estimate of 33 488 (± 4455) in 2012. An apparent 20% decline from 2012 to 2021, 33 488 (± 4455) to 26 662 (± 4192), suggests the population abruptly reached carrying capacity due to loss of prey resources. This was particularly evident for humpback whales wintering in Hawai‘i, where, by 2021, estimated abundance had declined by 34% from a peak in 2013, down to abundance levels previously seen in 2006, and contrasted to an absence of decline in Mainland Mexico breeding humpbacks. The strongest marine heatwave recorded globally to date during the 2014–2016 period appeared to have altered the course of species recovery, with enduring effects. Extending this time series will allow humpback whales to serve as an indicator species for the ecosystem in the face of a changing climate.
Keywords
- carrying capacity
- marine heatwave
- mark–recapture modelling
- abundance estimation
- climate change
- environmental variables
