The Value of Bt Corn in Southwest Kansas: A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach

Abstract

While most Corn Belt farmers consider planting Bt corn to control European corn borer, southwestern Kansas farmers must also take into account an array of other insect pests, including corn rootworm, spider mites, and southwestern corn borer. This research uses a decision analysis framework to estimate the expected economic value of Bt corn in southwest Kansas. Mean per acre Bt values ranged from $12.49 to $34.60, well above the technology fee assumed to be $14 per unit, or $5.25 per acre at a seeding rate of 30,000 seeds per acre. The minimum value over all scenarios was $8.69 per acre. Using Monte Carlo simulation, it was shown that European and southwestern corn borer infestation probabilities, expected corn price, and expected pest-free yields are important determinants of the value of Bt corn.

Keywords

• bt corn
• decision analysis
• european corn borer
• integrated pest management
• monte carlo method
• southwestern corn borer