Decomposition-integration-based prediction study on the development trend of film industry

Abstract

Movies have the unique ability to both generate income and spread culture, thus predicting the direction of the film industry's growth has garnered a lot of interest. Given the volatility of the movie industry's entire box office revenue dataset and the peculiarities of tiny samples, this article incorporates the decomposition-integration notion to build the EEMD-PSO-LSSVM model movie box office prediction model. The historical box office data are first broken down into many components using the ensemble empirical modal decomposition technique, and then, distinct sequences are predicted using the least squares support vector machine prediction method with particle swarm optimization, and ultimately, the predictions for each sequence are combined. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the decomposition-integration technique in illustrating the data fluctuation characteristics of quarterly movie box office revenues. When compared to other models, the model proposed in this study has clear advantages in the problem of predicting the time series data of box office revenues that are non-linear, non-smooth, and non-large samples.

Keywords

• Film industry
• Situation prediction
• Decomposition-integration
• EEMD