The Lasso and the Factor Zoo-Predicting Expected Returns in the Cross-Section

Abstract

We investigate whether Lasso-type linear methods are able to improve the predictive accuracy of OLS in selecting relevant firm characteristics for forecasting the future cross-section of stock returns. Through extensive Monte Carlo simulations, we show that Lasso-type predictions are superior to OLS when type II errors are a concern. The results change if the aim is to minimize type I errors. Finally, we analyze the predictive performance of the competing methods on the US cross-section of stock returns between 1974 and 2020 and show that only small and micro-cap stocks are highly predictable throughout the entire sample.

Keywords

• factor models
• cross-section of stock returns
• lasso
• simulation study