Dynamic risk assessment of drought disaster: a case study of Jiangxi Province, China

Abstract

The dynamic risk assessment of drought is crucial in the transition from the crisis management model to the risk management model, which can reveal the evolution mechanism of drought disasters. Due to a lack of data and research perspectives, most current studies are still based on static risk assessment. This study proposes a conceptual model for the dynamic risk assessment of droughts based on the probability of their occurrence and potential impacts. The developed dynamic risk index considers the hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and capacity for drought mitigation. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was used to determine the weight coefficient of each indicator in the model. The novelty of the proposed model lies in the integration of four elements of drought disasters with spatiotemporal characteristics. Jiangxi Province, which is frequently affected by drought, was selected as the study area to validate the proposed model. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model rapidly reflects the degree of drought disaster risk caused by drought events and the influencing factors at monthly and annual scales. Moreover, the datasets based on the influencing factors of drought disasters in different regions have a good commonality in the proposed model. HIGHLIGHTS A dynamic risk assessment model with spatiotemporal characteristics was established.; Four factors based on temporal and spatial changes were incorporated in this model.; The innovative method was provided for the risk management of drought disaster.; Monthly and annual time scales were selected for the validation of the model.;

Keywords

• capacity for drought mitigation
• drought disaster
• dynamic risk assessment
• exposure
• hazard
• vulnerability