Evaluation and prevention and control measures of urban public transport exposure risk under the influence of COVID-19—Taking Wuhan as an example

Abstract

Background Since December 2019, COVID-19 began to spread throughout the world for nearly two years. During the epidemic, the travel intensity of most urban residents has dropped significantly, and they can only complete inflexible travel such as "home to designated hospital" and "home to supermarket" and some special commuting trips. While ensuring basic travel of residents under major public health emergency, there is also a problem of high risk of infection caused by exposure of the population to the public transport network. For the discipline of urban transport, how to use planning methods to promote public health and reduce the potential spread of diseases has become a common problem faced by the government, academia and industry. Method Based on the mobility perspective of travel agents, the spatial analysis methods such as topological model of bus network structure, centrality model of public transport network and nuclear density analysis are used to obtain the exposure risk and spatial distribution characteristics of public transport from two aspects of bus stops and epidemic sites. Results The overall spatial exposure risk of Wuhan city presents an obvious "multi center circle" structure at the level of bus stops. The high and relatively high risk stops are mainly transport hubs, shopping malls and other sites, accounting for 35.63%. The medium and low-risk stops are mainly the villages and communities outside the core areas of each administrative region, accounting for 64.37%. On the other hand, at the scale of epidemic sites, the coverage covers 4018 bus stops in Wuhan, accounting for 36.5% of all bus stops, and 169 bus lines, accounting for 39.9% of all routes. High risk epidemic sites are mainly concentrated in the core areas within the jurisdiction of Wuhan City, and in the direction of urban outer circle diffusion, they are mainly distributed in the low and medium risk epidemic sites. According to the difference of the risk level of public transport exposure, the hierarchical public transport control measures are formulated. Discussion This paper proposes differentiated prevention and control countermeasures according to the difference of risk levels, and provides theoretical basis and decision-making reference for urban traffic management departments in emergency management and formulation of prevention and control countermeasures.