Enhancing scientific transparency in national CO2 emissions reports via satellite-based a posteriori estimates

Abstract

Abstract Biennial Update Reports (BURs) are essential requirements from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, many non-Annex I countries have not submitted these reports due to difficulties in compiling the inventories. We developed a satellite-based method for the top-down inverse estimation of CO2 emissions using partial-column data in the lower troposphere obtained by the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite, adopted to validate the Mongolian 2nd BUR (BUR2) for the energy sector in 2018. The estimated CO2 emissions were only 1.5% higher than those reported in the BUR2; these were also very close (4.2% smaller) to estimates from the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research. Mongolia is the first country to introduce an independent inverse estimate in its BUR, thereby increasing scientific transparency. Our method could be applied into other countries and could be incorporated into UNFCCC reporting guidelines, significantly improving global CO2 emission estimates.