A novel method developed to estimate Weibull parameters

Abstract

The objective of current work is to compare a newly developed method i.e. Wind Energy Intensification Method (WEIM) with two previously used methods i.e. Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM) and Modified Maximum Likelihood Method (MMLM) to calculate Weibull shape and scale parameters. Three Years (2014–2017) hourly measured wind data at 50 m mast height has been used at sixty locations in Pakistan. These methods have been compared with the help of Wind Energy Error (WEE), RMSE and R2. It has been found that WEIM is the most accurate method while MMLM is the second most accurate. Moreover, a comparison of energy density values estimated using actual wind speed distribution and Weibull distribution with three methods has been conducted, and it is found that WEIM estimates the energy density values which are closest to actual values among three methods at each location. Hence, WEIM can be used with significant accuracy for Weibull parameters determination. Finally, province-wise comparison of energy density values for investigated locations has been done which shows that Chaghi, DI Khan, Rahim Yar Khan and Thatta are the most lucrative sites in each of four provinces.

Keywords

• Maximum likelihood method
• Modified maximum likelihood method
• Wind energy intensification method
• Wind energy estimation