Risk Assessment of Snow Disasters for Animal Husbandry on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and Influences of Snow Disasters on the Well-Being of Farmers and Pastoralists

Abstract

In the context of global warming, meteorological disasters occur more frequently in various regions which exert increasing influences on human life. Snow disasters are some of the natural disasters that most seriously affect the development of husbandry on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP), so it is necessary to explore their spatio-temporal variations and perform comprehensive risk assessment. Based on the daily snow depth data set in China, obtained by inversion of satellite remote sensing data, the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of snow disasters on the QTP from 1980 to 2019 were studied. The regional difference in the comprehensive risks of snow disasters for the husbandry on the QTP was evaluated from four perspectives, i.e., the risk of hazard factors, sensitivity of hazard-inducing environments, vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies, and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. The farmer and pastoralist well-being (FPWB) index in five typical regions was constructed to discuss the possible influences of snow disasters on the FPWB since the 21st century. Results show that, in the last 40 years, the frequency, duration, average snow depth, and grade of snow disasters on the QTP all exhibited significant interannual and interdecadal variabilities, and they also displayed a declining long-term trend. The comprehensive risk of snow disasters for the husbandry on the QTP is low in the north while high in the south. The high-risk zone accounts for 1.54% of the total and is mainly located in Kashgar City in the north-western end of the QTP; the sub-high-risk and medium-risk zones are mainly found in the south of the plateau and are distributed in a tripole pattern, separately covering 15.96% and 16.32% of the total area of the plateau; the north of the plateau mainly belongs to low-risk and sub-low-risk zones, which separately account for 43.06% and 23.12% of the total area of the plateau. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the FPWB in five typical regions, namely, Kashgar (I), Shigatse (II), Nagqu (III), Qamdo (IV), and Yushu (V), has been increasing, while the risk of snow disasters has gradually decreased. Every 1% decrease in the risk of snow disasters corresponded to 0.186%, 0.768%, 0.378%, 0.109%, and 0.03% increases in the FPWB index in the five regions. Snow disasters affect FPWB mainly by directly or indirectly damaging material resources (livestock inventories and meat production) and social and financial resources.

Keywords

• Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau
• snow disaster
• risk assessment
• climate change