Economic and Mathematical Modelling of the Effectiveness of the National System for Countering Cyber Fraud and Criminal Proceeds Legalisation Based on Survival Analysis Methods

Abstract

In the modern world, the digitalisation of financial relations, the development of innovative technologies, the emergence and use of cryptocurrencies for payments lead to an increase in the number of cyber fraud in the financial sector and their intellectualisation, an increase in the illegal outflow of funds abroad. Ineffective decisions and inaction in countering these threats lead to large-scale negative consequences, both financial and public. The purpose of this study is to carry out economic and mathematical modelling of the effectiveness of the national system for countering cyber fraud and criminal proceeds legalisation, which is based on the use of survival analysis methods. This study provides a bibliometric analysis of research papers devoted to the problem of cyber fraud efficiency and countering the legalisation of illegal funds by building a bibliometric keyword map using VOSviewer software. This allowed identifying 7 clusters of fundamental categories of cyber fraud analysis. And changes in the research vectors of researchers were shown by the visualisation map of the contextual and temporal dimension of papers on the cyber fraud efficiency in publications of the Scopus database. The study examines the effectiveness of the national system for countering cyber fraud and criminal proceeds legalisation based on survival tables. As a result of the study, the effectiveness of the national system for countering cyber fraud and criminal proceeds legalisation was analysed based on the Kaplan-Meyer method. The effectiveness of the national system for countering cyber fraud and criminal proceeds legalisation depends on the time interval after the detection of violations. The practical significance of applying the developed model is to form an analytical basis for further management decision-making by the National Bank of Ukraine, the State Financial Monitoring Service, and the Security Service of Ukraine in the context of the effectiveness of the national system for countering cyber fraud and criminal proceeds legalisation and the need to adjust it

Keywords

• banks
• cyber fraud
• money laundering
• kaplan-meyer method
• national anti-money laundering system.