Сибирский лесной журнал (Oct 2021)
Decision making in the problems of forest protection from insect pests
Abstract
The principles of organization in the forest protection system and the principles of decision-making in the tasks of carrying out protective measures are discussed. The problem of assessing costs and risks in the course of forest protection measures is considered. The functioning of a security service is better understood when viewed as an agent-principal system. In the «agent–principal» system, agency relations are established when one person – the principal or the owner (principal) – transfers certain rights to another person – the agent. In this case, the agent, in accordance with the contract concluded between them, is obliged to act in the interests of the principal in exchange for remuneration. The agent problem, well known in the contract theory of economic systems management, is that if the managing manager is not the owner (principal) of the control structure, then there is a mismatch between the management goals of the principal and the agent. Each of them – both the agent and the principal - has their own interests. The agent has its own interests, and he tends to follow the goals of the principal only to the extent that the contract encourages him to do so. In such a system, there is an uneven distribution of information between the agent and the principal. By analogy with such economic systems, the system of forest protection is considered, where the state or the region is the principal, and the heads of regional structures of the forest protection system have information about the state of the forest ecosystem and the right to make managerial decisions. The features of the functioning of such a system are discussed. The problem of decision-making when carrying out protective measures is considered. The main feature of the decision-making process when protecting a forest from an attack by insects is that there is a lag between the moment a decision is made to switch to protective measures and the moment when protective measures begin. A decision-making model that minimizes the risks of errors is considered. The proposed approach makes it possible to evaluate the efficiency of decision-making in forest protection tasks, depending on the management principles used. The optimal decision on carrying out protective measures will be while minimizing errors of the first and second genera and the risk of damage to the plantation. In the proposed decision-making model, the coefficients for a certain type of pest can be determined from long-term survey data, while as an indicator of the state of the population, it is possible to use not only the values of its density, but also other indicators.
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