Crime Science (Aug 2024)
The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on crime across the world
- N. Trajtenberg,
- S. Fossati,
- C. Diaz,
- A. E. Nivette,
- R. Aguilar,
- A. Ahven,
- L. Andrade,
- S. Amram,
- B. Ariel,
- M. J. Arosemena Burbano,
- R. Astolfi,
- D. Baier,
- H.-M. Bark,
- J. E. H. Beijers,
- M. Bergman,
- D. Borges,
- G. Breetzke,
- I. Cano,
- I. A. Concha Eastman,
- S. Curtis-Ham,
- R. Davenport,
- C. Droppelman,
- D. Fleitas,
- M. Gerell,
- K.-H. Jang,
- J. Kääriäinen,
- T. Lappi-Seppälä,
- W.-S. Lim,
- R. Loureiro Revilla,
- L. Mazerolle,
- C. Mendoza,
- G. Meško,
- N. Pereda,
- M. F. Peres,
- R. Poblete-Cazenave,
- E. Rojido,
- S. Rose,
- O. Sanchez de Ribera,
- R. Svensson,
- T. van der Lippe,
- J. A. M. Veldkamp,
- C. J. Vilalta Perdomo,
- R. Zahnow,
- M. P. Eisner
Affiliations
- N. Trajtenberg
- School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester
- S. Fossati
- Department of Economics, University of Alberta
- C. Diaz
- Department of Economics, University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado
- A. E. Nivette
- Department of Sociology, Utrecht University
- R. Aguilar
- Catalan Police
- A. Ahven
- Ministry of Justice
- L. Andrade
- Instituto Universitario de Opinión Pública, Universidad Centroamericana José Simeón Cañas
- S. Amram
- Institute of Criminology, Faculty of Law, Hebrew University
- B. Ariel
- Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge
- M. J. Arosemena Burbano
- Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge
- R. Astolfi
- Departamento de Medicina Preventiva, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo
- D. Baier
- Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften (ZHAW), School of Social Work, Institute of Delinquency and Crime Prevention
- H.-M. Bark
- Korean Institute of Criminology
- J. E. H. Beijers
- Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR)
- M. Bergman
- Ministry of Security and Justice
- D. Borges
- Laboratório de Análise de la Violência, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro
- G. Breetzke
- Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria
- I. Cano
- Laboratório de Análise de la Violência, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro
- I. A. Concha Eastman
- Secretariat of Health
- S. Curtis-Ham
- Evidence Based Policing Centre, New Zealand Police
- R. Davenport
- Jill Dando Institute of Security & Crime Science, University College London
- C. Droppelman
- Instituto de Sociología, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
- D. Fleitas
- Ministry of Security and Justice
- M. Gerell
- Department of Criminology, Malmö University
- K.-H. Jang
- Smart Policing Intelligence Center, Police Science Institute
- J. Kääriäinen
- Institute of Criminology and Legal Policy, University of Helsinki
- T. Lappi-Seppälä
- Institute of Criminology and Legal Policy, University of Helsinki
- W.-S. Lim
- Korean Institute of Criminology
- R. Loureiro Revilla
- Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge
- L. Mazerolle
- School of Social Sciences, University of Queensland
- C. Mendoza
- Dialogos NGO
- G. Meško
- Faculty of Criminal Justice and Security, University of Maribor
- N. Pereda
- Department of Clinical Psychology and Psychobiology, Universitat de Barcelona
- M. F. Peres
- Departamento de Medicina Preventiva, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo
- R. Poblete-Cazenave
- Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam
- E. Rojido
- Laboratório de Análise de la Violência, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro
- S. Rose
- Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge
- O. Sanchez de Ribera
- School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester
- R. Svensson
- Department of Criminology, Malmö University
- T. van der Lippe
- Department of Sociology, Utrecht University
- J. A. M. Veldkamp
- Department of Sociology, Utrecht University
- C. J. Vilalta Perdomo
- Center for Research in Geospatial Information Sciences (CentroGeo)
- R. Zahnow
- School of Social Sciences, University of Queensland
- M. P. Eisner
- Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-024-00220-y
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 13,
no. 1
pp. 1 – 12
Abstract
Abstract There is a vast literature evaluating the empirical association between stay-at-home policies and crime during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these academic efforts have primarily focused on the effects within specific cities or regions rather than adopting a cross-national comparative approach. Moreover, this body of literature not only generally lacks causal estimates but also has overlooked possible heterogeneities across different levels of stringency in mobility restrictions. This paper exploits the spatial and temporal variation of government responses to the pandemic in 45 cities across five continents to identify the causal impact of strict lockdown policies on the number of offenses reported to local police. We find that cities that implemented strict lockdowns experienced larger declines in some crime types (robbery, burglary, vehicle theft) but not others (assault, theft, homicide). This decline in crime rates attributed to more stringent policy responses represents only a small proportion of the effects documented in the literature.
Keywords
