Статистика и экономика (Jul 2019)
Market of the residential real estate: trends and prospects
Abstract
Purpose of the study. The purpose of this research is modeling of the current trends for changing the cost of the residential real estate. The price on the housing market is one of the most difficult indicators for the analysis, as it reflects trends in the commodity and financial markets, labor market, reacts to political, social and economic changes. On the housing market, it is possible to determine the level of income of the population and their ability to accumulate by the price if we consider the regional level, then it is possible to define degree of attractiveness of this or that region, etc. Development of the housing market promotes improvement of a demographic situation and development of social stability of the society.Materials and methods. In the analysis of dynamics of changing the cost of the residential real estate, the methodological base is important. In this research, the methods of descriptive statistics for the description of the existing trends to change the average cost of housing and development of mortgage lending were presented and assessment of structure of price differentiation in regions is carried out. With the methods of identification and the analysis of the top trend, the adequate model, describing a trend functionally was constructed. For the evident representation of results of the research, tabular and graphic methods of visualization of data were used. For the purpose of the solution of objectives the package of the IBM SPSS Statistics application programs was used.Results. Results of the research allowed to define the main trends of changing the cost of the residential real estate in the Russian Federation on primary and secondary markets and to analyze dynamics of granting mortgage loans. The reasons for significant regional price differentiation of housing are considered. Creation of model for changing the average cost of housing on primary and secondary markets is carried out and forecast estimates to change the price for 2019 are received.Сonclusion. The conducted research showed that there is a steady trend of growth of cost for housing both on primary and secondary markets. It should be noted that in the nearest future the increase in rates of gain of the price in connection with the legislation change since July 2019 is possible, first, it would concern primary market, but in a consequence, it will be reflected also on the secondary market.
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