eLife (Sep 2022)
SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics in blood donors and COVID-19 epidemiology in eight Brazilian state capitals: A serial cross-sectional study
- Carlos A Prete Jr,
- Lewis F Buss,
- Charles Whittaker,
- Tassila Salomon,
- Marcio K Oikawa,
- Rafael HM Pereira,
- Isabel CG Moura,
- Lucas Delerino,
- Manoel Barral-Netto,
- Natalia M Tavares,
- Rafael FO Franca,
- Viviane S Boaventura,
- Fabio Miyajima,
- Alfredo Mendrone-Junior,
- Cesar de Almeida-Neto,
- Nanci A Salles,
- Suzete C Ferreira,
- Karine A Fladzinski,
- Luana M de Souza,
- Luciane K Schier,
- Patricia M Inoue,
- Lilyane A Xabregas,
- Myuki AE Crispim,
- Nelson Fraiji,
- Fernando LV Araujo,
- Luciana MB Carlos,
- Veridiana Pessoa,
- Maisa A Ribeiro,
- Rosenvaldo E de Souza,
- Sônia MN da Silva,
- Anna F Cavalcante,
- Maria IB Valença,
- Maria V da Silva,
- Esther Lopes,
- Luiz A Filho,
- Sheila OG Mateos,
- Gabrielle T Nunes,
- Alexander L Silva-Junior,
- Michael P Busch,
- Marcia C Castro,
- Christopher Dye,
- Oliver Ratmann,
- Nuno R Faria,
- Vítor H Nascimento,
- Ester C Sabino
Affiliations
- Carlos A Prete Jr
- ORCiD
- Department of Electronic Systems Engineering, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
- Lewis F Buss
- Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Charles Whittaker
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Tassila Salomon
- Faculdade Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Marcio K Oikawa
- Universidade Federal do ABC, São Bernardo do Campo, Brazil
- Rafael HM Pereira
- Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea), Brasília, Brazil
- Isabel CG Moura
- Faculdade Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Lucas Delerino
- Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Manguinhos, Brazil
- Manoel Barral-Netto
- ORCiD
- Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Manguinhos, Brazil
- Natalia M Tavares
- Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Manguinhos, Brazil
- Rafael FO Franca
- Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Manguinhos, Brazil
- Viviane S Boaventura
- Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Manguinhos, Brazil
- Fabio Miyajima
- Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Manguinhos, Brazil; Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, Brazil
- Alfredo Mendrone-Junior
- Fundação Pró Sangue Hemocentro de São Paulo (FPS), São Paulo, Brazil
- Cesar de Almeida-Neto
- ORCiD
- Fundação Pró Sangue Hemocentro de São Paulo (FPS), São Paulo, Brazil
- Nanci A Salles
- Fundação Pró Sangue Hemocentro de São Paulo (FPS), São Paulo, Brazil
- Suzete C Ferreira
- Fundação Pró Sangue Hemocentro de São Paulo (FPS), São Paulo, Brazil
- Karine A Fladzinski
- Centro de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Paraná (HEMEPAR), Curitiba, Brazil
- Luana M de Souza
- Centro de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Paraná (HEMEPAR), Curitiba, Brazil
- Luciane K Schier
- Centro de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Paraná (HEMEPAR), Curitiba, Brazil
- Patricia M Inoue
- Centro de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Paraná (HEMEPAR), Curitiba, Brazil
- Lilyane A Xabregas
- Fundação Hospitalar de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Amazonas (HEMOAM), Manaus, Brazil
- Myuki AE Crispim
- Fundação Hospitalar de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Amazonas (HEMOAM), Manaus, Brazil
- Nelson Fraiji
- Fundação Hospitalar de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Amazonas (HEMOAM), Manaus, Brazil
- Fernando LV Araujo
- Fundação de Hematologia e Hemoterapia da Bahia (HEMOBA), Salvador, Brazil
- Luciana MB Carlos
- Centro de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Ceará (HEMOCE), Fortaleza, Brazil
- Veridiana Pessoa
- Centro de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Ceará (HEMOCE), Fortaleza, Brazil
- Maisa A Ribeiro
- Fundação HEMOMINAS, Belo Horizotne, Brazil
- Rosenvaldo E de Souza
- Fundação HEMOMINAS, Belo Horizotne, Brazil
- Sônia MN da Silva
- Fundação HEMOMINAS, Belo Horizotne, Brazil
- Anna F Cavalcante
- Fundação de Hematologia e Hemoterapia de Pernambuco (HEMOPE), Recife, Brazil
- Maria IB Valença
- Fundação de Hematologia e Hemoterapia de Pernambuco (HEMOPE), Recife, Brazil
- Maria V da Silva
- Fundação de Hematologia e Hemoterapia de Pernambuco (HEMOPE), Recife, Brazil
- Esther Lopes
- Instituto Estadual de Hematologia Arthur de Siqueira Cavalcanti (HEMORIO), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Luiz A Filho
- Instituto Estadual de Hematologia Arthur de Siqueira Cavalcanti (HEMORIO), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Sheila OG Mateos
- ORCiD
- Instituto Estadual de Hematologia Arthur de Siqueira Cavalcanti (HEMORIO), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Gabrielle T Nunes
- Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Manguinhos, Brazil; Instituto Estadual de Hematologia Arthur de Siqueira Cavalcanti (HEMORIO), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Alexander L Silva-Junior
- Fundação Hospitalar de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Amazonas (HEMOAM), Manaus, Brazil; Universidade Federal do Amazonas, Manaus, Brazil; Centro Universitário do Norte, Manaus, Brazil
- Michael P Busch
- Vitalant Research Institute, San Franscico, United States; University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, United States
- Marcia C Castro
- Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, United States
- Christopher Dye
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Oliver Ratmann
- ORCiD
- Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Nuno R Faria
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Instituto de Medicina Tropical, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
- Vítor H Nascimento
- ORCiD
- Department of Electronic Systems Engineering, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
- Ester C Sabino
- ORCiD
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.78233
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 11
Abstract
Background: The COVID-19 situation in Brazil is complex due to large differences in the shape and size of regional epidemics. Understanding these patterns is crucial to understand future outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 or other respiratory pathogens in the country. Methods: We tested 97,950 blood donation samples for IgG antibodies from March 2020 to March 2021 in 8 of Brazil’s most populous cities. Residential postal codes were used to obtain representative samples. Weekly age- and sex-specific seroprevalence were estimated by correcting the crude seroprevalence by test sensitivity, specificity, and antibody waning. Results: The inferred attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in December 2020, before the Gamma variant of concern (VOC) was dominant, ranged from 19.3% (95% credible interval [CrI] 17.5–21.2%) in Curitiba to 75.0% (95% CrI 70.8–80.3%) in Manaus. Seroprevalence was consistently smaller in women and donors older than 55 years. The age-specific infection fatality rate (IFR) differed between cities and consistently increased with age. The infection hospitalisation rate increased significantly during the Gamma-dominated second wave in Manaus, suggesting increased morbidity of the Gamma VOC compared to previous variants circulating in Manaus. The higher disease penetrance associated with the health system’s collapse increased the overall IFR by a minimum factor of 2.91 (95% CrI 2.43–3.53). Conclusions: These results highlight the utility of blood donor serosurveillance to track epidemic maturity and demonstrate demographic and spatial heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 spread. Funding: This work was supported by Itaú Unibanco ‘Todos pela Saude’ program; FAPESP (grants 18/14389-0, 2019/21585-0); Wellcome Trust and Royal Society Sir Henry Dale Fellowship 204311/Z/16/Z; the Gates Foundation (INV- 034540 and INV-034652); REDS-IV-P (grant HHSN268201100007I); the UK Medical Research Council (MR/S0195/1, MR/V038109/1); CAPES; CNPq (304714/2018-6); Fundação Faculdade de Medicina; Programa Inova Fiocruz-CE/Funcap - Edital 01/2020 Number: FIO-0167-00065.01.00/20 SPU N°06531047/2020; JBS – Fazer o bem faz bem.
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