Trends of Global Agriculture and Prospects of China’s Agriculture Toward 2050

Abstract

This article reviews China’s agricultural development history and prospects China’s agricultural development by 2050 considering the implications of global agricultural development trends on China’s agriculture. The transformations of the overall economic structure and the rural economy should be combined to enhance agricultural labor productivity and promote the rapid development of agriculture. By 2050, the share of agriculture GDP in China’s total economy and the share of agricultural employment in China's total employment will reach convergency gradually. China’s food self-sufficiency rate will drop from the current 95% to about 90% in 2035 and will further drop by 2050. High-value agricultural products and multifunctional agriculture are the major driving forces for future agricultural growth and income raise of farmers. The strategic priorities for realizing China’s agricultural modernization by 2050 include: (1) improving agricultural productivity and ensuring national food security; (2) maximizing the comparative advantages of agricultural products; (3) promoting green, high-efficiency, and high-value agriculture; (4) guaranteeing sustainable utilization of agricultural water and soil resources; and (5) guiding modern agricultural development through institutional, policy, and investment reforms. Salient policy recommendations include: (1) increasing investment in technology and infrastructure to improve agricultural productivity; (2) enhancing the development of advantageous agriculture and agriculture with large demand potentials based on ensuring food security; (3) improving the market environment by rectifying market failures to support the development of high-value agriculture; (4) maintaining the sustainable development of agriculture; and (5) optimizing the allocation of land, labor, capital, and other agricultural production factors.

Keywords

• global agricultural development，China’s agricultural outlook，rural transformation，food supply and demand forecast，agricultural modernization