Probabilistic Analysis of Critical Speed Values of a Rotating Machine as a Function of the Change of Dynamic Parameters

Abstract

Real-world rotordynamic systems exhibit inherent uncertainties in manufacturing tolerances, material properties, and operating conditions. This study presents a Monte Carlo simulation approach using MSC Adams View and Adams Insight to investigate the impact of these uncertainties on the performance of a Laval/Jeffcott rotor model. Key uncertainties in bearing damping, bearing clearance, and mass imbalance were modeled with probabilistic distributions. The Monte Carlo analysis revealed the probabilistic nature of critical speeds, vibration amplitudes, and overall system stability. The findings highlight the importance of probabilistic methods in robust rotordynamic design and provide insights for establishing manufacturing tolerances and operational limits.

Keywords

• rotordynamics
• Monte Carlo method
• vibration analysis
• nonlinear dynamics
• uncertainty analysis
• Jeffcott rotor