Trade pattern evolution and risk propagation modeling of wind power industrial chains worldwide

Abstract

[Objective] The increasingly complex international situations and frequent trade frictions have significantly intensified the supply risk of global industrial chains. The trade pattern evolution identifying and risk propagation modeling of global wind power industrial chains would provide essential implications for increasing the resilience of industrial chains and securing energy supplies. [Methods] This study depicted the spatial-temporal characteristics of major wind power industrial chains during 2000-2021 based on complex network analysis, revealed the resilience of the industrial networks by network resilience assessment, and tracked the impacts of supply risks from different countries (regions) based on cascading failure modeling. [Results] (1) The overall scale of global wind power industrial chains continued to expand with trade connections between countries (regions) intensifying, and the complexity and efficiency of industrial networks increased significantly. (2) China as a major exporter played an increasingly important role in the global wind power industrial chains, establishing intense trade relations with numerous countries (regions). (3) Supply risks originating from China may generate profound impacts on the tower and generator trade networks, while supply risks originating from the United States and Germany may generate profound impacts on the blade and gearbox trade networks, respectively. [Conclusion] Optimizing industrial layout, collaborating with emerging markets, and strengthening technological innovation are thus of great significance for systematically preventing potential risks within wind power industry chains worldwide.

Keywords

• wind power industrial chains|trade patterns|network resilience|supply chain risk|risk propagation