Greening rate in North Korea doubles South Korea

Abstract

South and North Korea have experienced contrasting economic developments since the 1950s while sharing similar climates. Previous studies revealed an overall long-term greening trend across the Korean Peninsula based on greenness data from coarse-resolution satellite images. However, there has been no comprehensive comparison of the greenness patterns and the driving mechanisms between two countries due to the limitations of coarse-resolution satellite data. Here, we performed cross-calibration among Landsat sensors and adopted a phenology-based approach to generate Landsat annual maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI _max ) time series for each pixel from 1986 to 2017. We found that over 1986–2017, the greening rate in North Korea was almost twice that of South Korea. Cropland in South Korea is the main source of the greening discrepancy. The expansion of agricultural facilities in the stable cropland area and urbanization in the cropland loss area of South Korea contributed 57% to the significant negative NDVI _max trend, which was dominant over the forest NDVI _max increase resulting from rising temperatures, CO _2 fertilization effects and afforestation projects. However, in North Korea, CO _2 fertilization effects in the stable cropland area and transition from grassland to cropland promoted an increase in NDVI _max , despite decreasing NDVI _max in forest areas due to deforestation. Our results highlight the need for delineating fine-scale land-use changes to advance our understanding of regional vegetation dynamics.

Keywords

• greening change
• land use change
• Landsat
• crop
• forest
• random forest