A Feasibility Study of Developing eLCV Shared Architecture in Taiwan

Abstract

Vehicle electrification has become an important strategy adopted worldwide, including in Taiwan, as a means to achieving net zero emissions. Taiwan is capable of building a whole light commercial vehicle and has technological strength in producing critical EV parts. This study applies the Bass diffusion model to assess the feasibility of developing eLCV shared architecture in Taiwan and estimates that the annual replacement demand for eLCVs could reach 20,221 units. This exceeds the threshold number of 5000 units, which could motivate the automakers to develop eLCV shared architecture. The simulation result shows that achieving full market penetration would take at least 13 years and would be highly correlated with policy support, the vehicle selling price and the battery pack price. The B2B model is a suitable way of introducing eLCVs into the logistics fleets. In the initial promotion phase, policy support and complementary measures would be needed, e.g., public sectors’ purchases, financial incentives and constructing a user-friendly environment. The simulation results further indicate that Taiwan’s eLCV market has a high price elasticity, and in the future, a tendency for the battery pack price to decline may speed up the replacement process.

Keywords

• vehicle electrification
• shared architecture
• eLCV
• bass diffusion model