Informativeness (information-bearing) of factors forming interannual variability of the Barents Sea and its individual areas ice coveren

Abstract

The various combinations of factors that form an interannual variability of ice coveren in the western, northeastern and southeastern parts of the Barents Sea were analysed for the period 1950 ̶ 2022. The co-phased cyclic fluctuations between the Barents Sea ice coveren and atmospheric circulation indices (5 ̶ 7 and 8 ̶ 14 years), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (5 ̶ 9 years), solar activity (10 years), parameters of the Earth’s rotation axis and other astrogeophysical characteristics (6, 9 and 10 years) were reported. Multiple regression equations for the winter and summer seasons for each part of the Barents Sea were formed. The connecting of each predictor with ice coveren variability and their contribution to the ice coveren total dispersion were evaluated. It was shown that the set of factors forming interannual variability of the Barents Sea ice coveren is differs depending on the area and season. It appears that previous state of the ice coveren has the greatest impact at the ice coveren variability in the western and the northeastern parts of the Barents Sea (78 % and 74 % of total dispersion respectively). And in the southeastern part of the Barents Sea the highest impact at the ice coveren volatility has the atmosphere temperature variability − 45 % of total dispersion..

Keywords

• barents sea
• ice coverage
• informativeness
• interannual variability
• regression
• cyclic processes
• statistical modeling