Interactions within the climate-vegetation-fire nexus may transform 21st century boreal forests in northwestern Canada
Dorian M. Gaboriau,
Émeline Chaste,
Martin P. Girardin,
Hugo Asselin,
Adam A. Ali,
Yves Bergeron,
Christelle Hély
Affiliations
Dorian M. Gaboriau
Institut de recherche sur les forêts, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, 445 Boulevard de l’Université, Rouyn-Noranda, QCJ9X 5E4, Canada; Centre for Forest Research, Université du Québec à Montréal, P.O. Box 8888, Stn. Centre-ville, Montréal, QCH3C 3P8, Canada; Corresponding author
Émeline Chaste
Université de Lorraine, AgroParisTech, INRAE, SILVAE, 54000 Nancy, France; Now at: CIRAD, UMR Eco&Sols, University Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, IRD, Montpellier, France
Martin P. Girardin
Centre for Forest Research, Université du Québec à Montréal, P.O. Box 8888, Stn. Centre-ville, Montréal, QCH3C 3P8, Canada; Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, 1055 rue du PEPS, P.O. Box 10380, Stn. Sainte-Foy, Québec, QCG1V 4C7, Canada
Hugo Asselin
Centre for Forest Research, Université du Québec à Montréal, P.O. Box 8888, Stn. Centre-ville, Montréal, QCH3C 3P8, Canada; École d’études autochtones, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, 445 Boulevard de l’Université, Rouyn-Noranda, QCJ9X 5E4, Canada
Adam A. Ali
ISEM, University Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, Montpellier, France
Yves Bergeron
Institut de recherche sur les forêts, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, 445 Boulevard de l’Université, Rouyn-Noranda, QCJ9X 5E4, Canada; Centre for Forest Research, Université du Québec à Montréal, P.O. Box 8888, Stn. Centre-ville, Montréal, QCH3C 3P8, Canada
Christelle Hély
ISEM, University Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, Montpellier, France; École Pratique des Hautes Etudes, PSL University, Paris, France
Summary: Dry and warm conditions have exacerbated the occurrence of large and severe wildfires over the past decade in Canada’s Northwest Territories (NT). Although temperatures are expected to increase during the 21st century, we lack understanding of how the climate-vegetation-fire nexus might respond. We used a dynamic global vegetation model to project annual burn rates, as well as tree species composition and biomass in the NT during the 21st century using the IPCC’s climate scenarios. Burn rates will decrease in most of the NT by the mid-21st century, concomitant with biomass loss of fire-prone evergreen needleleaf tree species, and biomass increase of broadleaf tree species. The southeastern NT is projected to experience enhanced fire activity by the late 21st century according to scenario RCP4.5, supported by a higher production of flammable evergreen needleleaf biomass. The results underlie the potential for major impacts of climate change on the NT’s terrestrial ecosystems.
